A number of scientists have identified two “basic conditions” that must be met in order for the Corona virus to eventually become less dangerous, in light of its increasing ability to mutate, according to a report by the American public radio website NPR.
Scientists are now realizing that this virus is not like other relatively stable viruses such as measles, so after several studies they have identified two essential factors in order to protect everyone around the world in the end from the horrific disease.
The American website polled the opinions of scientists and doctors to find out the future of the epidemic, which has infected and killed millions around the world since its first appearance in 2019 in China, and the possible end of it, and whether it will return strongly next year, or in the future.
Vaccines and herd immunity
The report indicates that there was some hope that humanity would be able to completely eradicate the virus, but with the rapid spread of it in all continents, and the increasing number of cases, this hope turned to the idea of local eradication, through access to herd immunity and vaccinations.
“It’s like saying that if we are not able to completely eradicate the new virus, we may achieve local eradication, as we do with measles or polio,” says biologist Jenny Lavigne of Emroy University in Georgia.
But achieving this for the new virus requires the stability of the virus and its genetic sequence not changing and not mutating over time, according to virologist Paul Beniasz, from Rockefeller University in New York.
The problem is that viruses, such as influenza, for example, mutate very quickly, so they reduce the effectiveness of vaccines, and therefore people are infected with the virus continuously, which calls for changing vaccines every year, says molecular biologist Catherine Kistler, from the University of “Washington” in Seattle. .
The report notes that at the beginning of the epidemic, the common belief was that the new virus was more like measles than influenza, and then variables began to appear, “and it seemed as if it not only mutated, but was mutating very quickly.”
Kestler points to a study conducted by her and colleagues at the University of “Washington” that the new virus “adapted” significantly at the present time at a rate four times higher than the seasonal flu.
There is no end to evolution
And the scientist doesn’t expect it to “stop adapting,” she says. “It may slow down, but viruses that evolve adaptively tend to keep doing that. They don’t tend to come to an end of evolution.”
Many scientists say that this rapid development dashes hopes of eradicating Covid-19, as is the case with influenza, and is likely to be able to re-infect people again and again, and will continue to return year after year.
Eventually, “everyone will be exposed to it,” according to Dr. Abrar Karan, an infectious disease specialist at Stanford University, adding that “everyone will get it whether they are vaccinated or not.”
But Karan does not believe the disease will be horrific forever. “When you are fully vaccinated, or exposed to disease, you are dealing with a completely different disease and a completely different process,” he says.
Mild flu-like virus
Some scientists believe that eventually it could turn into a disease that looks more similar to other coronaviruses, that is, a mild illness similar to the flu.
Lavigne, who now works at the biotechnology company Karius, indicates that a study she conducted on what the new virus can do two years, five, and even 10 years from now, indicates that in order for the new virus to turn into a mild cold, it must be met. Two conditions, the first: Continuing to obtain immune protection against severe symptoms, through infection several times, or obtaining vaccinations.
She says that if a vaccine and/or natural exposure provides long-term immunity to everyone, over time the vast majority of the population will eventually be protected from severe COVID-19 symptoms.
The second condition is that the virus must remain relatively mild in children, so as long as they contract it when they are young, they will have immunity to the virus like adults. So in theory, everyone around the world would eventually be protected from the horrific disease.
The accumulation of this immunity in all people may take a long time, perhaps years, that is why people must receive vaccinations, because the faster everyone is protected from severe symptoms, the faster the virus can turn from a disease that causes panic, to a disease that fades from the background of our lives, According to the US report.
The Corona virus has caused the death of at least 4,992,831 people in the world since the World Health Organization office in China reported the emergence of the disease at the end of December 2019
At least 246,316,520 people have been confirmed infected with the virus since its appearance. The vast majority of those infected recovered, although some continued to experience symptoms weeks or even months later.
The figures are based on daily reports issued by each country’s health authorities and exclude subsequent reviews by statistical agencies that indicate much higher death numbers.
The World Health Organization, taking into account the excess mortality rate directly or indirectly related to Covid-19, considers that the outcome of the epidemic may be two or three times greater than the officially announced outcome.
A large proportion of less serious cases or asymptomatic cases remain undetected despite the intensification of examinations in a large number of countries